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When will a diesel be available for my aircraft? |
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News, facts, and comments on the coming revolution for piston-engine aircraft.
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News of July 28, 2005A crystal ball exercise on why General Aviation will thrive by 2020Dear Fellow Pilot, This message is not a sales pitch. It may concern you in three cases: If you are an American pilot; If you are a non-American pilot; If your business has to do with keeping "them" flying. "Them" being any kind of the (around) 400,000 piston-engine’d aircraft existing in the world. Why would anyone ever want to learn to fly? The airline business has never produced more passenger-miles/year than now, and it is still growing. The air cargo business is growing even faster. Shipping one ton-mile of goods by air is getting cheaper and cheaper each year. Each of these airliners have pilots. Similarly, the security of the Free World is more and more dependent on a handful of extra-qualified pilots flying aircraft worth zillions, equipped with ever fancier weaponry and avionics. The world needs more and more pilots. Which is an eternal problem: Why would anyone ever want to learn to fly? In the US, where 70% of the world's aircraft are registered, there is only one aircraft of any description for every one thousand automobiles. The population counts some 750,000 pilots, a tiny percentage of the population, and yet is the highest in the world. Obviously only mentally deranged people - like you and me - enjoy flying. We are mad: the immense majority of the world's population says so. And they say we private pilots are dangerous, noisy, polluting (leaded gas! Ugh…) and irresponsibly enjoying our passion at the taxpayers' expenses. Besides, the pilot population is decreasing anyway… Soon, after one last increase of Avgas price, some stiff FAA navigation fees, and one extra regulation imposing one extra, costly procedure, we will be done with these crazy little airfields. Make room for mass transportation, regulated by their army of lawyers. We can always hire pilots from China, India, Russia or Mexico. True? Not true? Yet, every single one of these Airbus, Boeing, C5A, Sukhoi, Tornado and FA22 pilots once in his life took a first flying lesson… on what? On a small, half-ton, single engine, put-put-put Cessna, Piper, or equivalent small plane. And besides, Chinese and Indian pilots are badly needed in China and India... So at the end of the day, will General Aviation live and thrive, or will it go the way of the Dodo? Here is the good news: It is going to thrive, not only in the US, but worldwide. (Besides, remember, the Dodo went extinct precisely because it couldn’t fly…) How do I know? Well, people might say that GA should grow for three reasons: Because as airliners become bigger, cheaper, more volksy, more regulated and policed, more mass transit-like, etc., more people will look for the alternative: the corporate business jet if you belong to that world, and the private plane. Because there are huge developing countries out there for which the small plane offers the most effective, expedient transportation. Especially when there is nothing else (Siberia, Africa, South East Asia…) Because the world economy is growing, and more people are becoming airline passengers (clogging the airlines even more) while also more people can afford their own plane or fraction of a plane. But these reasons aren't nearly enough to compensate for other facts and trends: After 5 years flying in the US a Cessna 182 I own, cannot afford, and share with other pilots, and as I know more and more small aircraft owners, I have discovered that a majority of so-called pilots hardly manage to stay proficient and hardly fly more than the $100 hamburger and more than 50 hours/year. And they complain about increasing insurance costs and Avgas prices. And they fear their next medical. And there are less and less of them. And this is in the US where Avgas is still cheaper than elsewhere, FAA services are free of charge (except fuel tax) and you have airfields everywhere. Less and less of them are flying because their employer discourages them from using their own plane for business (liability), and their family from using it for vacations (weather). Except of course a small elite. Something else must give if low cost, affordable flying really thrives and opens the market. And it is the coming of the foolproof airplane. The good news is: it is coming. Stall-proof, fireproof, weather proof, engine-loss proof, fuel exhaustion proof, alternator loss proof. Even pilot deficiency proof... What is that? In its simplest form, it will be a single diesel (fireproof, engine-loss proof, no alternator) engine, 100HP plane, 2-seater, of high aspect ratio possibly with leading edge slats (stall proof), equipped with a 2-axis autopilot, GPS with WAAS datalink (weather proof), the autopilot allowing for Air Traffic Control to override the pilot (deficiency proof) and take direct control of the plane to program an automatic landing at the nearest airfield (which is possible with a diesel). In case of unforeseen weather degradation combined with pilot deficiency, ATC may also tune the engine to best fuel economy (meaning in our case 1.8 Gal/h: fuel exhaustion proof thanks to diesel's quasi-constant Specific Fuel Consumption) to reroute the plane. Such a plane can, with less equipment, sell as a Light Sports Airplane. It will be priced between fifty and a hundred thousand US dollars (2005 price index). Its It's world market may well be of 10,000 units/year in 2020, so it will be worthwhile to get it certified at such low prices. In its most elaborate form it may be a 200 to 350HP 4-seater priced from two to five hundred thousand dollars, or even a 350HP twin priced up to one million. That twin will be, in 2025, a flying hotel room taking you and your spouse from the US to Europe and back for a total fuel bill of $ 1,750, plus your weekend golf bill in the Azores on the way. Where will such planes be designed and manufactured? This is where the field is opening. They will certainly result of an international division of labor and component outsourcing, involving, besides the US: Russia, Ukraine, Australia, Germany, France, Italy, UK, Poland, Czechland, Brazil, China, India… (Fellow pilot, are you in any of such countries? We want to hear from you.) Where will such airplanes be flying? Same thing. They will enjoy a wider market than the sole US, even though the US should remain the biggest single market for some decades. Who will own such planes, or shares in them? Mostly self-employed people, small business owners, and retired people (did you notice there are more and more of them and they have the money?) And these three classes form a sub-population which, worlwide, is growing very fast. When is the first of these planes coming to certification? My guess is it will be a gradual process between 2008 and 2020. But other planes are coming before that: diesel conversions of existing planes; diesel OEMs on new but already certified planes; interesting experimental designs demonstrating this or that feature… It is going to be interesting for you either as a pilot or as a GA businessman, wherever you may be on the planet. Still interested? Now comes my request to you if you read that far: I ask you to stay tuned with this crystal ball exercise; to send me information and questions through our DieselAir Newsletter Forum; to enlist as a free-of-charge subscriber in order to receive automatically by email all news stories posted on our website; and to pass the word along to other pilots and professionals who should be interested too. We would like to know how many diesel aircraft are flying in your country; know about any firm or organization working on a future STC for a diesel conversion of an existing plane; know about any interesting experimental diesel project. Any positive answer will also help. "What?" you may tell me. "You don't want any money?" Well, to say the truth, already thanks to you all for reading this far and for visiting us. The DieselAir Newsletter's website receives 2,500 hits per day, a 100% progress during the last 6 months. Your kind interest will help us. Happy landings! Andre Teissier-duCros, Publisher posted at 9:06 AM |
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