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When will a diesel be available for my aircraft? |
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News, facts, and comments on the coming revolution for piston-engine aircraft.News of July 09, 2008In 2008, four major events are causing a shock in the aero diesel market – DieselAir special world review, Chapter 1.These events are: Thielert going Chapter 11 last April; Cessna and Cirrus becoming seriously aware of the diesel opportunity therefore beginning to adapt their policies to it; fuel prices going through the roof; and developing countries defining or redefining policies for General Aviation, this with special attention for smaller piston engined airplanes (PEA), between 100 and 450HP singles and twins. It is these who are the main market for aero diesels. Market forecast for aero diesels: Before these events, say in early 2007, we expected the world population of diesel airplanes (today some 1,000, mainly Thielert equipped) to keep growing, slowly first, then faster; to eventually explode in some countries; and then to seriously take off in the US. Our 20-year forecast has drastically changed for the short term, and to a lesser extent for the long term. To discuss. LSA diesels: A positive consequence of these events is the explosion of Light Sport Airplanes (LSA). These alone represent a future market for 100-150HP diesels, all 2-strokes. Does it mean that the flight academy of the future will fly 120HP Two-Seaters burning 3 to 4 gallons of Jetfuel per hour? At this time only IndUS Aviation in Texas is positioned to take advantage of this opportunity with their Thorpedo T-211 equipped with the Wilksch WAM 2-stroke diesel. Will they succeed? To discuss. The US arena: The US has by far the largest population of small airplanes, and still represents the biggest market for them. Until now, it enjoyed by far the lowest prices for both Avgas and Jetfuel. This was especially significant for Avgas, thanks to which a large population of very old airplanes (over 30 years) could survive in the hands of private pilots with limited means. When Avgas was 2 dollars a gallon, it was even manageable to keep flying a DC3 burning 70 gallons of Avgas per hour. Now GAMA reports that the 1st Quarter shipments of PEAs has dropped 28% compared with 2007 Qtr 1st, while business jets shipments are up 40%. We foresee that the number of airworthy PEAs on the US Register is going to drop significantly during the next ten years. How significantly we do not know yet. We know it for several reasons but mainly because, according to AOPA statistics, these planes are flying less and less: the drop was from an average 150 hours/year a few years ago to less than 100 now, this before the full impact of higher fuel prices. Let us face it: the $100 hamburger is under threat. Meanwhile, it means in theory that more used Cessnas, Pipers and others will be available for diesel conversion, but wait: Cessna and Piper may influence which models they will encourage to detriment of the others. Which ones? To discuss. The world market for PEAs outside the US: We foresee that the PEA market worldwide is going to grow, and to grow fast in some countries; but this growth, which is expected, is going to be the occasion for a revamping of infrastructures and regulations. Many countries know that their growth pattern is going to make room for more badly needed PEAs, whereas such airplanes were virtually non-existent until now in their fleet. To make room under which conditions? This is what they want to define and regulate taking into account local conditions. Which applications will they favor? One thing for sure: this growth will benefit the aero diesel market, because it uses globally available Jetfuel. However, could Mogas alternatives appear fast enough to compete with aero diesels? To discuss. Thielert: Meanwhile, what will happen with Thielert who has supplied the absolute majority of diesel airplanes, and with Diamond Air, the unquestioned leader of diesel airplanes, who goes on as fast as it can developing its own Thielert substitute? To discuss. SMA: Meanwhile, the wild card in the industry is SMA, who offers today the only globally certified aero diesel the airworthiness of which is not in question. But only some 50 of them are flying yet. Will SMA, supported by its huge parent company SNECMA, be able to turn the global situation to its advantage? To discuss. While we prepare these reports, your comments are welcome. Andre Teissier-duCros, Publisher. posted at 4:06 AM |
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