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When will a diesel be available for my aircraft? |
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News, facts, and comments on the coming revolution for piston-engine aircraft.
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News of November 23, 2011Of Avgas, geopolitics and common sense.It seems clear today that any airplane pilot in the US who owns any type of piston-engined airplane presently burning 100LL will not be able anytime soon simply to refill it with a new Avgas that would be entirely lead-free. And as an observer, since 1998, of the coming of diesel engines burning JetA and available to replace Avgas or other gasoline-burning aircraft, I know that diesel engines replacing any existing gasoline engine on existing aircraft are no more on the horizon either. This newsletter expressed such hopes a few years ago for the Cessna 172 and 182 and for the Piper PA28 and later for others. They are gone at least for the US. As for new, FAA certified airplanes (other than Experimentals) sold with a diesel as OEM, the only models available on the US market and worldwide are made by Diamond Air from Austria, and the only other one available outside the US is the French-built Finch Ecoflyer, which is based on the Robin DR400 equipped with a Centurion diesel. That’s all. Looking back, I can see that, in recent years, the major events affecting the future of both 100LL and aero diesel have been the acquisition by China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Co. (CAIGA) of Continental engines from Teledyne, with the publicly expressed intention to develop Continental’s aero diesel technology purchased from SMA, and the decision of the Chinese administration to ban 100LL as aviation fuel. So, 30 years from now, the future Chinese owners of small airplanes will burn Jetfuel, plus non leaded gasoline. 30 years from now! Note that there are today some 1,000 piston-engined planes on the Chinese register… In 2042, you might have 100,000 of them. Now, the huge world fleet of piston-engined airplanes (around 300,000) consists in majority (200,000+) of planes on the US register, of advanced age (38 years old in average), which are not flying much (say, less than 50 hours/year). The average age of their pilots and owners is above 50. It was easy before 2008 to assess that whether one considers the market of such planes, or the market of spare parts and services for them, or the market of their engines, or the market of 100LL, the special fuel they burn, we were looking at a tiny, mature, depressed market, with no hope for revival. And since 2008, the assessment has gone worse. The gods with a deep pocket running the planet today viewed Teledyne’s decision to sell Continental to CAIGA for a measly 189 million as wise: Get out of here while the going is good. Let’s quietly sell or wrap down all US businesses whose product or service depends on piston-engined planes. ‘Will the last person leaving this facility and this town please turn the lights off.’ (Seattle during Boeing’s bad days,1971.) Yet, there is one law of life and of business which I have always verified since I began my professional life back in the sixties: It is called Euripides’ Law. Euripides, a Greek philosopher, wrote in 500 B. C.: “It is never the worst, but the unexpected that eventually happens.” My qualified assessment which I publish for discussions is this: The US industry dedicated to the smaller, piston-engined, plane, and its components, services and consumables is by far dominant in the world. It is highly competitive. It is represented mostly by small and midsize businesses who know how to move fast. Its costs are relatively low, and getting lower with a weak dollar and a weak economy. It is traditionally dedicated to its domestic market, but is ready to work for the devil, if the devil wants a small plane and is ready to pay. And the devil in our case exists: It is the overseas market of professionals of all kinds who, for either of the 6,000 reasons not elsewhere classified, need to fly a small inexpensive plane, fueled with a basic fuel available anywhere, and fly relatively intensively. Their number is growing. But it happens to be growing much faster in several world regions, and not in the U. S. Comments are welcome at info@dieselair.com. posted at 12:34 AM |
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